Forex Analysis & Reviews: 18.10.2022 - Stock markets rose amid a...

18.10.2022 12:22 PM

Stock markets rose amid a potential US recession at the end of 2023

Stocks rally as investors focus on the start of the corporate reporting season and the UK's efforts to bring more stability to its volatile bond market.

US stock futures rose more than 1.5%, after the S&P 500 closed above a key technical support level on Monday. Amazon and Microsoft also saw an increase in premarket trading in New York on Tuesday.

European stocks extended gains for the fourth day.

The dollar index is down for the second day, but pound is also falling amid a Financial Times report that says the Bank of England is likely to delay the sale of government bonds due to the failed UK financial plan that stirred markets. This, along with the change in the UK government's fiscal policy, could give a reprieve to pension funds that have been trying to cope with their risks of selling off gold.

As for risky assets, they rebounded in recent days due to positive earnings reports. However, with concerns about inflation, the economy, and hawkish central bankers lingering, there is debate about how sustainable growth will be.

In contrast to the generally positive sentiment in the stock markets, Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan said he was reducing the distribution of risks in the bank's portfolio of models, as he became more cautious about the recovery of the economy and the market.

The latest models of the probability of a recession in the United States, developed by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger, also predict a higher probability of such an event over all time periods.

Important news this week:

- Industrial production in the US (Tuesday);

- Speech of Fed member Neil Kashkari (Tuesday);

- CPI report for the Eurozone (Wednesday);

- EIA crude oil inventories report (Wednesday);

- US mortgage applications, building permits and housing starts reports, and Fed Beige Book (Wednesday);

- Speech of Fed members Neil Kashkari, Charles Evans and James Bullard (Wednesday);

- US existing home sales, jobless claims, and leading index reports (Thursday);

- Consumer confidence report for the Eurozone (Friday).

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