empty
27.03.2025 11:37 AM
EUR/USD – March 27th: The Dollar Gradually Strengthens

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline, stopping only near the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0734. A rebound from this level allowed the pair to recover to the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797, but another rebound from this area opens the door for a renewed decline with a potential close below 1.0734. Conversely, a consolidation above the 1.0781–1.0797 zone would suggest the possibility of further euro growth toward the 200.0% retracement level at 1.0857.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation on the hourly chart has evolved. The last completed upward wave barely broke the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. This indicates a gradual trend reversal toward a bearish direction. For several weeks, Donald Trump's tariffs exerted strong pressure on the dollar, but the market has now shown only a weak reaction to the latest round of tariffs.

Wednesday's news backdrop was both interesting and important. The U.S. durable goods orders report showed a 0.9% increase, beating the -1% forecast. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.7% (vs. 0.2% expected), and orders excluding defense climbed 0.8% (vs. -1.6% expected). These three key reports provided strong support for the bears. It was also announced yesterday that Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all automobiles imported into the U.S. Whereas previously such news would have triggered a sharp sell-off in the dollar, the reaction this time was minimal. This suggests the market may be growing desensitized to this factor. Of course, further tariffs are expected to be announced in early April, and their severity could again weigh on the dollar. But for now, this topic may be considered priced in.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming another bearish divergence and consolidating below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. Therefore, further decline toward the 50.0% level at 1.0696 remains possible. There's still room for downside, as the price is trading above the ascending trend channel. No fresh divergences are currently forming on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 305 new long positions and closed 46,030 short ones. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, compared to 129,000 short positions.

For 20 weeks, large players had been offloading the euro, but for the past 6 weeks, they have been shedding shorts and building up longs. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to widening interest rate differentials, but Trump's trade policy is a more influential factor for traders, potentially pressuring the Fed toward a more dovish stance and even triggering a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Final Q4 GDP (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)
  • Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech (18:05 UTC)

The March 27 economic calendar includes three key events, two of which are quite significant. News flow may have a notable impact on market sentiment in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling opportunities were available after the pair closed below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, targeting 1.0734 and 1.0622. The first target has been reached. Today, selling from a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone remains a valid strategy with the same targets. Buying can be considered only if the pair closes above this zone on the hourly chart, aiming for 1.0857—but bears are currently in control.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 11, 2025

On Friday, EUR/USD made two rebounds from the 1.1637–1.1645 support zone and turned in favor of the euro. This means the upward movement could continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci

Samir Klishi 10:44 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 11, 2025

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD on Friday made two rebounds from the 1.3425 level, and on Monday continues moving upward toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3470. A rebound from

Samir Klishi 10:25 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Forex forecast 11/08/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:20 2025-08-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis for the Week of August 11–16

Trend Analysis This week, from the 1.3450 level (close to the last weekly candle), the price may start moving downward toward 1.3270 – a historical support level (blue dotted line)

Stefan Doll 10:02 2025-08-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis for the Week of August 11–16

Last week, the pair moved upward, almost testing the historical resistance level at 1.1710 (blue dotted line), and then turned downward, closing the weekly candle at 1.1641. In the coming

Stefan Doll 09:55 2025-08-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Indicator Analysis on August 11, 2025

On Friday, the pair moved downward, tested the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3416 (red dotted line), and then rose, closing the daily candle at 1.3450. Today, the price will attempt

Stefan Doll 09:53 2025-08-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis on August 11, 2025

On Friday, the pair moved downward, almost testing the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1626 (blue dotted line), after which the price rose slightly and closed the daily candle at 1.1641

Stefan Doll 09:40 2025-08-11 UTC+2

If the USD/JPY successfully breaks through the Pivot level, it has the potential to continue strengthening. Monday, August 11, 2025.

[USD/JPY] – [Monday, August 11, 2025] Although the condition of USD/JPY is still moving sideways, as indicated by the overlapping EMAs, the USD/JPY's successful breakout and close above its Pivot

Arief Makmur 07:37 2025-08-11 UTC+2

NZD/USD still has the opportunity to continue strengthening to its nearest resistance level. Monday, August 11, 2025.

[NZD/USD] – [Monday, August 11, 2025] With both EMAs forming a Golden Cross and the RSI(14) indicator at the Neutral Bullish level, the Kiwi has the potential to strengthen today

Arief Makmur 07:37 2025-08-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for August 11, 2025

The euro has settled even more firmly at the 1.1632 support level. The longer it consolidates there, the more balanced the probabilities of growth and decline will become. However

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-08-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.