Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 146.88 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point into the market. As a result, the pair rose by only 20 points before pressure on the dollar returned. I missed the sell opportunity at 146.38 since by the time the level was broken, the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero mark.

In the second half of the day, pressure on the yen may return due to the expected release of key U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for March and labor market statistics. Investors will closely watch these events, as they may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. Higher-than-expected inflation readings could boost demand for the dollar, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish Fed policy. On the other hand, weaker-than-forecast inflation data could undermine the dollar and support the yen. Fed members' speeches will also carry weight, as their comments may confirm or challenge current market expectations regarding future Fed policy.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 145.65 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 146.33 (thicker green line). Around 146.33, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). A rise in the pair is only likely following strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 145.20 level, with the MACD in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 145.65 and 146.33 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 145.20 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.49, where I plan to exit short positions and open long trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Pressure on the pair may arise at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 145.65 level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 145.20 and 144.49 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is crucial to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important Note: Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not practicing proper money management and trading large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.