empty
15.12.2023 01:35 PM
Jerome Powell changed his rhetoric, and the dollar couldn't withstand it

The EUR/USD pair on Thursday experienced growth to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0960) and solidified above it. Such a strong rise in the European currency was caused by the information background on Wednesday and Thursday. It turned out that traders were not prepared for Jerome Powell's comments and new stance. Christine Lagarde's speech only added fuel to the fire. Thus, the process of the euro's rise may continue towards the next level at 1.1035. The consolidation of the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.0960 will work in favor of the American currency, with some decline toward the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.0862).

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation has become not more complex but less appealing. We are accustomed to market movements proceeding fairly smoothly, so any sharp rise or fall causes panic among all traders and analysts. The last upward wave has overlaid all previous waves. The trend has changed to "bullish" at the moment, but now practically any downward wave will not be able to change it back to "bearish." For the resumption of the "bearish" trend, the euro needs to fall by 250–300 points. The euro has soared, and now what will its landing be like?

Jerome Powell has been regularly stating for a long time (all the last months) that the process of tightening monetary policy is not complete. He repeatedly drew the market's attention to the fact that inflation remains very high, speaking about rate cuts prematurely, and the Federal Reserve could raise the rate at any moment by one or even two more times. However, on Wednesday evening, he unexpectedly stated that rates would be lowered next year, and this statement alone could cause a total collapse of the US dollar. If the talk is now about rate cuts, decisions on hikes will not be made. Powell said, "Rate hikes are unlikely."

Yesterday, Christine Lagarde "added fuel to the fire," unlike Powell, who did not talk about easing monetary policy next year. The situation now is as follows: is the Federal Reserve ready to start lowering rates, and is the ECB not? Powell's abrupt change in rhetoric is a reason to get rid of the dollar. Maintaining Lagarde's hawkish position is also a reason to get rid of the dollar.

Is there hope for the dollar to rise now? In my view, expecting a strong rise in the US currency in the near future is not advisable. If the ECB signals its readiness to start easing early next year, then the dollar will start having a trump card in hand. Right now, it can only count on a corrective rise.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a reversal in favor of the European currency and consolidated above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0957. This consolidation allows counting on the continuation of growth towards the next corrective level at 38.2% (1.1032). No imminent divergences are observed in any of the indicators today. The "bullish" trend continues, but a bounce off 1.1032 or a close below 1.0957 will allow bears to regain some of the lost positions over the past two days.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader recommendations:

This image is no longer relevant

What can be advised to traders in the current situation? Further growth of the euro today is unlikely. The euro will find it extremely difficult to find support in business activity reports due today in the EU and Germany. I believe that the pair may rise to the level of 1.1035 on the hourly chart, but it will be very difficult for it to climb higher. Upon consolidation below the level of 1.0960, I advise opening sales with a target of 1.0862 on the hourly chart. On a rebound from the level of 1.1035, I also advise selling the pair.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

XAU/USD。分析與預測

從技術角度來看,在四小時圖中,最近跌破100期簡單移動平均線(SMA)被視為一個關鍵的看跌信號。此外,同一圖表上的震盪指標也位於負值區域,這表明任何隨後的上漲應被視為出售機會,而且可能會受到限制。

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-30 UTC+2

歐元/美元。7月30日。空頭暫停,但新的挑戰等待著他們

週二,歐元/美元(EUR/USD)匯率繼續下跌,並收於100.0%斐波那契回撤水平1.1574之下。這表明,週三的跌勢可能繼續,目標下一個斐波那契水平76.4% – 1.1454。

Samir Klishi 12:02 2025-07-30 UTC+2

英鎊/美元。7月30日。美聯儲可能協助美元

在小時圖中,GBP/USD 貨幣對於週二繼續下跌,並收於 1.3357–1.3371 支撐區以下。因此,英鎊可能在週三繼續下跌,朝向下一個 127.2% 的斐波那契水平——1.3258。

Samir Klishi 11:58 2025-07-30 UTC+2

外匯預測 30/07/2025:歐元/美元,美元/加元,美元/日元,石油和比特幣

實用連結: 我其他的文章可以在這個部分找到 InstaForex 初學者課程 熱門分析 開立交易賬戶 重要提示: 外匯交易的新手在做出入市決定時需要非常謹慎。在重要報告發布前,最好保持觀望,避免因波動加劇而遭受市場劇烈波動的影響。

Sebastian Seliga 10:22 2025-07-30 UTC+2

2025年7月30-31日黃金(XAU/USD)交易信號:買入高於$3,320(21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

黃金在3,332美元附近交易,從觸及3,300美元關鍵水平後有所回升。預計黃金在接下來的幾天將攀升至3,398美元的7/8 Murray水平。

Dimitrios Zappas 07:08 2025-07-30 UTC+2

2025年7月30-31日EUR/USD交易信號:在1.1530以上買入(反彈 - 6/8 Murray)

在歐洲交易時段早期,歐元交易價格約為1.1564,從大約1.1518的低點反彈。此水準對歐元來說是一個良好的支撐位。

Dimitrios Zappas 07:07 2025-07-30 UTC+2

2025年7月30-31日比特幣的交易信號:在$118,750以下賣出 (6/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

比特幣目前交易價格約為117,547,低於6/8的Murray水準,低於21日簡單移動平均線(SMA),並處於自7月12日以來形成的下降趨勢通道內。 比特幣曾多次試圖鞏固在118,750美元之上,但都未能成功。

Dimitrios Zappas 07:05 2025-07-30 UTC+2

儘管存在有限回調的可能性,2025年7月30日,美元/瑞士法郎整體上仍然看漲。

USD/CHF – 星期三,2025年7月30日。 USD/CHF價格走勢與RSI(14)指標之間出現背離,顯示出潛在的有限修正空間。

Arief Makmur 06:50 2025-07-30 UTC+2

今天,即2025年7月30日,AUD/USD的主要賣方能否跌破其樞軸水平?

AUD/USD – 2025年7月30日,星期三。 雖然EMA(50)低於EMA(200),但今天賣方仍相當強勢,且RSI(14)的指數位於中性-看漲區域。

Arief Makmur 06:50 2025-07-30 UTC+2

2025年7月30日歐元/美元匯率預測

周二,歐元下跌了42點。其下行趨勢在55日移動平均線(MA55)處暫停。

Laurie Bailey 05:13 2025-07-30 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.