empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
21.03.2025 10:20 AM
US stock market getting ready for zero hour
Open trading account Open demo account

The Federal Reserve has done all it can to calm the markets, but in 2025, the spotlight has shifted away from the central bank.

The S&P 500 has brushed off strong housing data and jobless claims, instead focusing on the brewing constitutional crisis stirred up by Donald Trump's defiance of court rulings, as well as his new tariff threats. Trump has declared April 2nd the "day of America's liberation," clearly hinting at a potential rollout of reciprocal import tariffs.

Trade Policy Uncertainty Index on the Rise

This image is no longer relevant

According to Morgan Stanley, the S&P 500 is unlikely to revisit historic highs before the second half of 2025. Any rallies, especially those led by low-quality stocks, will likely be short-lived, as uncertainty clouds the outlook for economic and corporate growth.

In the latter half of the year, anything is possible, as investors shift focus to 2026. Even if markets can't count on Donald Trump, they still have the Federal Reserve. Amid slowing GDP growth, the central bank may eventually throw a lifeline to equities.

Investor Sentiment at Historical Lows

This image is no longer relevant

A recent American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey shows that bearish sentiment has outweighed bullish sentiment for four weeks straight, a record in the history of the survey. Investor sentiment reflects deep uncertainty. While there is hope for stabilization, that doesn't mean the S&P 500 will shoot up without efforts. Instead, the market is likely to experience choppy, erratic moves, reflecting the underlying climate of uncertainty.

Markets are now preparing for the zero hour when $4.5 trillion worth of derivatives is set to expire in the third week of March. The rebalancing of positions could bring about heightened volatility.

Last December, the VIX (fear index) surged following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which cut its 2025 rate cut projections down to just two. Even though most expiring contracts may not directly affect the S&P 500, volatility spikes—similar to a rollercoaster—remain a real risk.

This image is no longer relevant

Fears may intensify as April approaches, with the White House expected to implement reciprocal tariffs. The EU has already backpedaled, pushing back tariffs on US whiskey imports from early spring to mid-spring. Their stated goal is to buy time for talks with Washington and avoid economic pain on both sides. But it's unlikely that Donald Trump will be deterred—and markets agree.

Technical Outlook: S&P 500 at a Key Pivot

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is currently battling around the critical pivot level of 5,670, forming an inside bar pattern. A breakout above 5,710 could serve as a signal for short-term buying, potentially followed by a reversal. Conversely, a successful break below support at 5,633 may trigger a new wave of selling.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina
18:12 2025-07-04 +02:00
2650
Fundamental analysis
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina
18:08 2025-07-04 +02:00
2275
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, the USD/CAD pair remains near a three-week low, trading below the key 1.3600 level. The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains following yesterday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls
Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market Celebrates a Victory

Financial markets responded positively to the release of U.S. employment statistics for June. Payrolls rose by 143,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. April and May figures were revised upward
Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)

The U.S. labor market data, published by the Department of Labor, instilled cautious optimism among investors, extending the rally in U.S. equity markets, supporting the dollar, and weakening gold prices
Pati Gani 10:09 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market is Preparing for Another Shock

Just yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that, according to him, countries will
Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Strong U.S. Employment Report Exceeds All Expectations

The U.S. dollar surged against a range of risk assets as the key figures in June's employment report convinced the Federal Reserve that there is no need to lower interest
Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will
Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 4: Reeves Cried — Did the Pound Collapse?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly throughout Thursday until the start of the U.S. trading session. Recall that a day earlier, the British currency had plummeted by nearly
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 4: Trump's Third Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar Either

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Thursday, until unemployment and labor market reports were released in the United States. However, we will discuss those reports in other articles
Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 22:00 2025-07-17 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $3,350 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)
05:15 2025-07-04
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-07-07 UTC--5
Update on US stock market on July 4
12:47 2025-07-04
Stock Markets
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-07-07 UTC--5
Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)
10:09 2025-07-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-07-09 UTC--5
The Market Celebrates a Victory
10:15 2025-07-04
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-07-17 UTC--5
Trading Signals for BITCOIN for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $110,610 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)
05:17 2025-07-04
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.