empty
11.04.2025 12:39 PM
AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

The AUD/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers in its rebound from the psychological level of 0.5900, marking its lowest point since March 2020. The upward momentum has managed to overcome the 0.6200 round level, driven by optimism sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff suspension. Less than 24 hours after imposing new tariffs, Trump rolled back his retaliatory measures for most U.S. trade partners, suspending them for 90 days. This move eased concerns about the economic impact of his trade policy, triggered a strong rally in equity markets, and increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar paused its decline on Wednesday following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed that officials agreed the U.S. economy is at risk of higher inflation.

This prompted investors to reassess their expectations for Fed rate cuts, as policymakers advocated a cautious approach to further easing. Nonetheless, markets are already pricing in a potential restart of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in June, with a total of 75 basis points in cuts expected by year-end. However, concerns over the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China are limiting the AUD/USD pair's further upside.

Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% in retaliation for China's additional import duties on U.S. products. In response, China vowed to fight back and has filed a complaint against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization. This is discouraging traders from opening aggressive long positions on the Australian dollar, especially ahead of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release during today's North American session.

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, the intraday upward movement is struggling to break through the 0.62200 level, above which lies the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A sustained break above this resistance could trigger another wave of short-covering, pushing AUD/USD beyond the intermediate barrier of 0.6245, toward the psychological 0.6300 mark and the supply zone near 0.6330.

This image is no longer relevant

On the other hand, yesterday's low near 0.6117 is currently acting as immediate support, followed by the 0.6100 level. A failure to hold these supports would leave the pair vulnerable to a deeper decline toward 0.6040 and the key psychological level of 0.6000. The bearish trajectory may even extend further toward the multi-year low of 0.5900, especially since oscillators on the daily chart have yet to turn positive.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations

Irina Yanina 18:12 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break

Irina Yanina 18:08 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Friday, the USD/CAD pair remains near a three-week low, trading below the key 1.3600 level. The U.S. dollar is struggling to extend its gains following yesterday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls

Irina Yanina 17:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market Celebrates a Victory

Financial markets responded positively to the release of U.S. employment statistics for June. Payrolls rose by 143,000, exceeding Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. April and May figures were revised upward

Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Next Week May Begin on a Positive Note for the Markets (Possible Resumption of Growth in #SPX and #NDX)

The U.S. labor market data, published by the Department of Labor, instilled cautious optimism among investors, extending the rally in U.S. equity markets, supporting the dollar, and weakening gold prices

Pati Gani 10:09 2025-07-04 UTC+2

The Market is Preparing for Another Shock

Just yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his administration would begin sending letters to trade partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that, according to him, countries will

Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Strong U.S. Employment Report Exceeds All Expectations

The U.S. dollar surged against a range of risk assets as the key figures in June's employment report convinced the Federal Reserve that there is no need to lower interest

Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will

Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 4: Reeves Cried — Did the Pound Collapse?

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly throughout Thursday until the start of the U.S. trading session. Recall that a day earlier, the British currency had plummeted by nearly

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 4: Trump's Third Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar Either

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly throughout Thursday, until unemployment and labor market reports were released in the United States. However, we will discuss those reports in other articles

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.