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12.04.2023 12:49 PM
Bitcoin volatility rises ahead of inflation data: What to expect ahead?
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Bitcoin has started a new trading week with a bang and is holding the $30k level towards its equator. The price movement can be associated with investors' expectations ahead of the inflation report. Markets are confident that the downward trend will continue, which we see on the charts.

The inflation data is due out today, April 12, so the market volatility will continue to rise. The movement of BTC price towards $30k was accompanied by liquidation of short positions up to $100 million. This is a relatively small amount for the "harvesting" of large investors.

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At the same time, the asset showed stability, and during the formation of an upward momentum, trading volumes gradually increased. This indicates a high positive in the market, probably provoked by the incoming inflation data.

What to expect from inflation?

The deflationary movement of the U.S. dollar is likely to continue, as we can see from the latest developments in the cryptocurrency market. However, if the facts prove to be much weaker or completely opposite to expectations, we should expect a strong pullback of BTC/USD quotes.

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We should also not forget about the upcoming turmoil in the stock market. According to BBG data, the shorts in the e-mini S&P 500 futures are at their highest in the last 12 years. This suggests that the market is preparing for one of the worst reporting periods of large companies.

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At the same time, positive inflation data may soften the pressure on the market and improve investor sentiment. BlackRock says that the Fed may leave the key rate unchanged in May. However, for the veracity of such statements, it is necessary to see the deflationary movement of the indicator in March.

Bitcoin on the wave of success

On the eve of Bitcoin's conquest of the $30k mark, positive sentiments were observed in the market. Despite the fact that the main digital asset spent the previous week in consolidation, CoinShares notes the inflow of funds into crypto funds in the amount of $57 million.

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Santiment also notes an increase in bullish sentiment among crypto investors as BTC hits $30k. Bitcoin entered the top 4 trend words related to cryptocurrencies after the asset broke through the $30k psychological level. Cryptocurrency market sentiment is approaching a peak of euphoria, which could be dangerous for a sustained upward movement.

BTC/USD Analysis

As of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade near the $30k level on noticeably sagging trading volumes. At this stage, the $29k–$30k level is a local support zone, but this boundary will not be able to keep the asset from a sharp surge in bearish volumes.

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The key support zone at this stage is the $28.5k level, where the asset has been consolidating for two weeks. Technical metrics of the cryptocurrency look slightly overbought: stochastic and RSI crossed the 70 mark.

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At the same time, the stochastic oscillator shows signals for the formation of a bearish crossover. The RSI is also starting to gradually decline, but given the current trading volumes, this will not lead to a powerful downward trend in the price of BTC/USD.

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At the same time, we should expect an impulsive reaction of Bitcoin to the publication of inflation reports. Regardless of the result, we will see a sharp price movement due to a surge in volatility. Given the achievement of BTC at $30k, as a reaction to a future event, we can expect a local pullback of asset quotes.

Results

The market froze in anticipation of the publication of inflation reports. The position of the majority is already known—a move to $30k and above, which indicates local euphoria in the market. Most likely, the downward trend in inflation will continue, but will be below expectations. Given this, we should expect a pullback in the price of BTC/USD to a key support zone near $28.5k.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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