empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
28.05.2024 12:25 AM
CFTC report: USD sell-off continues despite high yields
Open trading account Open demo account

The latest CFTC report brought no surprises—the net speculative long position in the U.S. dollar has been declining for the fourth consecutive week.

The greenback lost almost $5 billion, bringing the total bullish bias down to $18.3 billion. The biggest surprise was the pace of recovery in long positions for the euro (+$3.3 billion) and the British pound (+$1.66 billion). There was also a notable increase in demand for gold, with a weekly growth in long positions of +$7.4 billion, bringing the total to $55.6 billion. The rising demand for gold is an indirect sign of declining interest in the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

The main driver of changes in demand for the dollar is the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast, which directly impacts yield. The likelihood that the Fed will decide to lower rates this summer is decreasing, and CME futures have already started to shift the rate cut forecast from September to November.

The obvious explanation for this is the belief that the economy is not cooling as much as the Fed would like. Last week's data suggests that economic growth is stable while inflation is easing very slowly. Weekly jobless claims show that companies are not increasing the pace of layoffs, growth in the services sector and manufacturing (PMI from S&P Global) is above forecasts, and inflation is easing at a very slow pace.

Furthermore, the situation is not as straightforward. According to official estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation has sharply decreased from its peak of 9% in mid-2022. It currently stands at 3.4%, which roughly corresponds to the level seen over a quarter-century from 1983 to 2008. However, inflation is calculated on a one-year interval, and if we take a longer period, such as from the beginning of President Biden's term, the picture looks quite alarming.

This image is no longer relevant

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have emphasized the need for more evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to the 2% target before it decides to lower the key interest rate, which has been at its highest level in two decades since July. Is it on this path? If we look at the annual rate, the decline has clearly stalled in the 3.3-3.5% range. If we consider the four-year rate, there is no progress at all.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday, with an expected increase of 2.7% year-on-year and 2.8% for the core index. The PCE report could change the overall perception of inflation dynamics and adjust forecasts. At first glance, higher inflation should support the dollar, as it implies higher yields, but this only works if the economy is growing steadily. Apparently, investors are considering the growing threat of stagflation, the increasing risks as elections approach, and the rising budget deficit, which will require the issuance of $1-1.5 trillion in bonds over the next few months, a task that will be extremely challenging.

The dollar remains under pressure despite higher yields.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Market Chaos to Continue (There is a likelihood of continued local declines in #USDX and gold prices) Markets continue to act blindly amid the chaotic actions of Donald Trump, who is trying to pull the U.S. out of a deep, all-encompassing crisis like Baron Munchausen pulling himself
Pati Gani
10:19 2025-05-23 +02:00
1195
Fundamental analysis
The Market Tucks Its Tail A necessary project at the wrong time. The House of Representatives has approved Donald Trump's tax cut initiative. The President hopes it will help stimulate the economy and offset shortcomings
Marek Petkovich
09:29 2025-05-23 +02:00
1165
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Market Chaos to Continue (There is a likelihood of continued local declines in #USDX and gold prices)

Markets continue to act blindly amid the chaotic actions of Donald Trump, who is trying to pull the U.S. out of a deep, all-encompassing crisis like Baron Munchausen pulling himself
Pati Gani 10:19 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The Market Tucks Its Tail

A necessary project at the wrong time. The House of Representatives has approved Donald Trump's tax cut initiative. The President hopes it will help stimulate the economy and offset shortcomings
Marek Petkovich 09:29 2025-05-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 23: No Talks, but Hang in There

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly, but like EUR/USD, it has been rising for two weeks. At first glance, one might wonder what reasons traders have
Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 23: The Rebellion Against the Dollar Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, yet it has risen significantly over the past two weeks. This movement can be interpreted in several ways. From a technical
Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. Only two are noteworthy: the final estimate of Germany's Q1 GDP and April's UK retail sales data. The German GDP report
Paolo Greco 05:58 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The "Big, Beautiful Bill" vs. Import Tariffs

At present, Donald Trump is focused on promoting what he calls the "Big, Beautiful Law." In the trade war, Trump has done everything he could—he imposed tariffs, then lowered them
Chin Zhao 00:23 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The Fed Is Not Ready to Act Before the Second Half of the Year

In recent reviews, I have repeatedly addressed the topic of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market expectations, and the reality we all live in. I believe the market's expectations
Chin Zhao 00:23 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Canadian Inflation Resumed Growth. USD/CAD Overview

Core inflation in April unexpectedly rose higher than forecast, rising from 2.2% to 2.5% year-over-year. Headline inflation slowed from 2.3% to 1.7%, slightly above the forecast. The decline in headline
Kuvat Raharjo 00:23 2025-05-23 UTC+2

The Dollar Keeps Moving Forward

The approval by the House of Representatives of what Donald Trump called a "big and beautiful" tax-cut bill, along with a rise in the U.S. composite PMI from 50.6
Marek Petkovich 18:16 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weak Euro, Weak Dollar

The three-day bullish rally in EUR/USD has come to an end: today the pair retreated into the 1.12 zone. However, the dollar is in no position to guarantee a sustained
Irina Manzenko 18:09 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 22:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
EUR/USD Forecast for May 23, 2025
05:16 2025-05-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 23: Pound Prepares for a Historic Breakout
03:43 2025-05-23
Trading plan
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – May 23: The Rebellion Against the Dollar Continues
08:15 2025-05-23
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
What to Pay Attention to on May 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
05:58 2025-05-23
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners
05:58 2025-05-23
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.