empty
06.03.2025 04:22 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 6: No Time to Hesitate

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD currency pair also continued to rise on Wednesday. However, the pound's growth this week has been weaker than the euro's, which is strange. Then again, there is little logic in the movements of either major currency pair right now. Donald Trump's decisions and statements push the U.S. dollar into freefall, which is why the euro and the pound are strengthening. Trump's actions may be a deliberate attempt to weaken the dollar. During his first term, he was eager to devalue the U.S. currency and repeatedly urged Jerome Powell to cut interest rates—without success. Now, realizing that pressuring the Fed chair again would be futile, Trump may be pursuing a different strategy. However, this theory sounds almost like science fiction. Regardless, the dollar is falling, and no one knows how much further it will drop. No one can predict what Trump will say tomorrow or the day after.

Macroeconomic data was irrelevant on Wednesday. The most important report—the ISM Services PMI—came in above forecasts, yet the market didn't react. Neither technical analysis nor fundamentals nor macroeconomics are working right now.

Several trading signals were generated on Thursday. The price formed three buy signals near the 1.2796-1.2816 range, ultimately reaching the 1.2863 target. It broke through this level so the upward movement could continue on Thursday. Whether or not to trade in these conditions is a personal decision for each trader, but we believe the current movements are illogical and difficult to predict.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

COT reports for the British pound indicate that commercial traders' sentiment has been fluctuating significantly in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, often intersect and generally hover near the zero mark. Currently, they are close to each other, suggesting a roughly equal number of long and short positions.

On the weekly timeframe, the price initially broke through the 1.3154 level and subsequently declined to the trend line, which was also breached. This break of the trend line implies that the pound's decline is likely to continue. However, there was a rebound from the previous local low on the weekly chart, which may indicate a range-bound movement.

The latest COT report on the British pound shows that the non-commercial group opened 500 BUY contracts and closed 4,500 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 5,000 contracts over the week, though this change does not significantly bolster the pound.

The fundamental backdrop still does not justify long-term purchases of the pound, and the currency remains at risk of continuing its long-term downtrend. Therefore, the net position may decline, signaling reduced demand for the British pound.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD completed its previous uptrend, which had formed over the past few weeks, and immediately started a new one. This may not be the last trend shift within the broader upward correction on the daily timeframe. However, we still don't see long-term factors supporting sterling's rise. The only thing propping up the British pound right now is Donald Trump, who appears to be attempting to decrease the value of the dollar in his own distinct way. The market is ignoring all other factors.

For March 6, the key levels to watch are 1.2237-1.2255, 1.2331-1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2796-1.2816, and 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B (1.2637) and Kijun-sen (1.2718) lines could also serve as signal sources. A Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven if the price moves 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be factored in when identifying signals.

No significant economic reports are scheduled in the UK or the U.S. for Thursday, but they aren't needed. The pound could continue rising as long as Trump keeps making statements like those we heard on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 20th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2983 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Looking at the 5-minute chart, we can analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:25 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 20th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0888 level and planned to use it as a decision point for entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:19 2025-03-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. After the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged and downgraded U.S

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded with a slight decline on Wednesday, which was purely coincidental, as the pound sterling also closed lower

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 20: Bank of England Meeting Ahead

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade within the same range on Wednesday. Despite the Fed meeting, Jerome Powell's speech, and the updated dot-plot, the market saw no significant movements

Paolo Greco 05:55 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 20: A Strange Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Wednesday the same way it had for the last two weeks. The Fed meeting had virtually no impact on market sentiment, although there

Paolo Greco 05:54 2025-03-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 19th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2980 level as a key area for making market entry decisions. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A break

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:02 2025-03-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 19th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0906 level as a key point for making market entry decisions. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to see what happened. A break

Miroslaw Bawulski 17:59 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair closely mirrored the movements of the EUR/USD pair. The British pound often follows the euro

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on March 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed an inclination to rise again. A closer examination of intraday movements reveals that the pair

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-03-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.