empty
24.03.2025 02:20 PM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

At the start of the week, following the release of a weaker Japanese PMI, the yen came under pressure. This, combined with news of narrower and less aggressive retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, has boosted investor confidence and reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates are capping deeper losses for the currency.

According to preliminary estimates, the Au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan fell from 49.0 to 48.3 in March, marking the lowest reading since March 2024 and a nine-month low. It also highlights a decline in the services sector, which contracted for the first time in five months. These data weigh on the yen.

Nevertheless, there are factors supporting the yen and preventing deeper losses—such as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirming the central bank's readiness to adjust its easing policy if inflation reaches the target level. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also stated that the Bank will closely monitor economic and price developments. This signals that the BoJ will act in accordance with economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast but maintained its outlook for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. This limits the U.S. dollar's recovery and caps USD/JPY movement near the psychological level of 150.00.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. business activity indices and speeches from FOMC members, which may provide additional momentum for USD/JPY. However, the market's primary focus will be on Friday's releases of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY bulls need to break above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which lies just above the psychological level of 150.00. If this level is breached, spot prices may rise toward the 151.00 round figure and then to the monthly high near 151.30.

However, considering that oscillators on the daily chart have yet to show positive momentum, the Asian session low around 149.33 is currently acting as immediate support ahead of the 149.00 round number. A drop below this level could trigger a break of the 148.60 area, opening the door to deeper losses, with an accelerated decline toward last week's swing low around 148.20 and eventually toward the 148.00 round level, or potentially lower.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Growth of the Gold Price Has Stopped. What Is the Reason? (There Is a Possibility of a Local Corrective Pullback in #SPX and Bitcoin)

The global market crash triggered by the announcement of sweeping tariffs personally introduced by the U.S. President continues into Asian trading sessions. While the decline has slowed, there is still

Pati Gani 09:09 2025-04-04 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but they may trigger a new storm. The market has not yet recovered from Wednesday evening's events when Trump imposed trade

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-04-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 4: Does Anyone Still Care About Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment?

The GBP/USD currency pair posted a 300-pip upward move from Wednesday evening through Thursday. Given the current situation, this may not end the dollar's decline. To be honest, the fall

Paolo Greco 06:07 2025-04-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – 4: Trump's Tariffs Crash the Dollar Once Again

The EUR/USD currency pair gained nearly 300 pips between Wednesday and Thursday. We saw a repeat of the situation in early March when the U.S. dollar fell by 400 pips

Paolo Greco 06:06 2025-04-04 UTC+2

The Dollar Shot Itself in the Foot

Don't create a problem for someone else; you might get caught in it yourself. Donald Trump sought to leverage the United States' leading position in the global economy by announcing

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-04-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payrolls and the Greenback

Can strong Nonfarm Payrolls help the dollar? This question is complicated, as the market is currently too shaken by Donald Trump's new tariffs. Traditional fundamental factors have been pushed into

Irina Manzenko 00:46 2025-04-04 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing strong gains amid broad-based selling of the U.S. dollar, keeping the USD/JPY pair below the key psychological level of 147.00. Investor concerns over the potential

Irina Yanina 18:22 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Markets enter warpath

Donald Trump confidently speaks about America's return to its Golden Age. From his viewpoint, it's time for America to prosper, rather than other countries. However, why does the US president

Marek Petkovich 10:49 2025-04-03 UTC+2

Why Is the Dollar Falling If Tariff Issues Affect Everyone? (Correction Likely for GBP/USD and EUR/USD After Sharp Rally)

The U.S. dollar had recently managed to stay above the key 104.00 mark on the ICE index, giving hope that a further decline might be avoided

Pati Gani 09:12 2025-04-03 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.