empty
03.04.2025 10:51 AM
GBP/USD – April 3rd: A Pointless End of the Week for the Dollar

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair once again surged upward, breaking through a slew of levels and resistance zones. At this point, the British pound has risen by 220 points, and the price is approaching the 1.3151 level. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level of 161.8% – at 1.3249. A rebound from the 1.3151 level would suggest a slight pullback.

This image is no longer relevant

The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily surpassed the previous peak. Thus, a bullish trend is currently unfolding. Most traders still refuse to buy the dollar regardless of the economic data because Donald Trump keeps introducing new tariffs, which are expected to hit U.S. and global economic growth in the future. For the bullish trend to turn bearish, the pair must consolidate below 1.2865.

The news background for the pound on Wednesday was the same as for the euro. As a result, both pairs showed strong gains, which are still ongoing. By tomorrow, the euro and the pound could rise another 100–150 points, similar to what we saw in early March. I originally intended to say that Friday would be very important for the dollar—but now I don't see the point. The dollar once again plummeted thanks to Donald Trump, making reports like Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and even Jerome Powell's speech practically irrelevant. These could only make matters worse. If the Fed Chair starts talking about a slowing economy, recession, or labor market challenges—and the market senses the Fed is preparing for rate cuts—it will only further sink the dollar. And if the NFP or unemployment figures come in worse than expected, the dollar could collapse by another hundred points. In my view, yesterday's tariffs are not Trump's final "gift" to the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair retains its bullish trend. I don't expect a strong decline in the pound unless the price closes below the rising channel. A rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3157 could favor the dollar, but honestly, the dollar doesn't stand much of a chance right now. A bullish divergence in the CCI indicator signaled a potential rise, though that wasn't the cause of the rally—it was simply a side note.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became more bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators rose by 13,075, while short positions decreased by 1,806. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now nearly 44,000 in favor of the bulls: 109,000 vs. 65,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has downward potential, but recent events may lead the market to shift in the long term. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 98,000 to 109,000, while shorts dropped from 78,000 to 65,000. More significantly, over the past eight weeks, longs increased from 59,000 to 109,000, and shorts decreased from 81,000 to 65,000. Let me remind you—those are "eight weeks of Trump's rule."

Economic Calendar (U.S. & UK):

  • U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls change (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech (15:25 UTC)

Friday's calendar contains several key events, but for today, the only major item is the U.S. ISM Services PMI. Still, I believe none of these supposedly critical reports will matter for the dollar at this stage. They may influence sentiment slightly, but that's about it.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

I wouldn't recommend selling the pair amid this strong rally. Of course, the dollar won't fall forever, but right now it's even hard to identify levels from which a decline might start. Buying is an option if the price consolidates above 1.3003 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3151 and 1.3249.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and consolidated below the support zone at 1.1260–1.1282. Therefore, today's price drop may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 29, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3425 level on Wednesday. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and potentially lead to a rise toward

Samir Klishi 11:10 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Forex forecast 29/05/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:30 2025-05-29 UTC+2

GOLD: Gold Prices May Continue to Decline

Gold prices remain under pressure due to the initiation of legal proceedings in the U.S. and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market. It appears that

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-05-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-05-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

Following a partial three-day decline, the British pound has reached the target support level at 1.3433. On the daily scale, the Marlin oscillator has not yet touched the lower boundary

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-05-29 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for May 29, 2025

The internal political confrontation in the United States (a court ruling overturned Trump's trade tariffs) has brought the Australian dollar back into the 0.6394–0.6444 range. The Marlin oscillator has settled

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-05-29 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is rising today as investors remain on edge amid uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, fiscal challenges in the U.S., and geopolitical risks—factors that support demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations

Irina Yanina 18:23 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 28-30, 2025: sell below 1.1350 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.1320 within the uptrend channel formed on the H4 chart since May 9 and showing signs of exhaustion

Dimitrios Zappas 18:02 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 28-30, 2025: sell below $3,310 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,306 within the bearish trend channel formed on H1 charts since May 23. The yellow metal is likely to continue

Dimitrios Zappas 18:01 2025-05-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.