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16.04.2025 11:50 AM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold continues to draw investor attention, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty in financial markets.

Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing uncertainty in trade relations between the U.S. and China makes gold an attractive safe-haven asset. Investors seek refuge in gold during periods of instability.

Fed Policy Easing: Expectations of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve are supporting gold prices at elevated levels. Forecasts of a 100-basis-point rate cut in 2025 create favorable conditions for the precious metal's upward momentum.

Weak U.S. Dollar: The weakening U.S. dollar—currently trading at levels last seen in April 2022—also contributes to higher gold prices. The yellow metal typically appreciates when the dollar weakens.

Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily and 4-hour charts shows slightly overbought conditions, signaling the need for caution among bullish traders. It also suggests that a short-term correction may be necessary. Therefore, traders may want to wait for a period of consolidation or a moderate pullback before entering new long positions.

In the event of a correction, support may be found in the $3246–3245 level, as well as near the $3230–3229 zone at the Asian session low. A deeper decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity, likely limited by the psychological level of $3200.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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