empty
01.04.2025 11:03 AM
Why tariffs may trigger rally instead of crash?

This image is no longer relevant

The current panic in the markets may be overblown. If tomorrow's tariffs prove to be less damaging than expected, we could witness a short but sharp rebound, particularly in the S&P 500. However, any long position at this stage would be countertrend and require strict risk management.

As the first quarter draws to a close, the stock market remains under intense pressure. Investors are holding their breath ahead of tomorrow's announcement on reciprocal tariffs, a decision that could set the tone for the start of the second quarter. In such a climate of fear, opportunities for a rebound often emerge. The question is where to find support and when to act.

Current situation: no safe haven for indices

The S&P 500 is currently trading near 5,590 points, while the Nasdaq 100 is hovering around 19,260. Both indices have come under pressure in recent weeks not only due to geopolitical and tariff-related concerns but also because of structural weakening in demand for US equities.

The S&P 500 entered technical correction territory and declined 10% from its mid-February peak. The Nasdaq is showing similar signs of weakness.

CFTC data confirms the trend: net long positions in both indices have been shrinking for several weeks. The market is under pressure not only from tariff concerns but also from fears of a longer-term capital shift toward European assets.

For the S&P 500, the nearest support lies at 5,535, the local low from last week and the lower boundary of the current channel. Below that is 5,480, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally since October.

Resistance levels are located at 5,650 and 5,705.

This image is no longer relevant

Bullish scenario: if the S&P 500 manages to hold above 5,535 after the tariff announcement and forms a bullish daily candle, this could be the first signal of a rebound toward the 5,650–5,705 range.

Bearish scenario: a drop below 5,480 would pave the way for a move down to the 5,400–5,350 zone, where medium-term support levels from late last year are located.

For the Nasdaq 100, the nearest support stands at 19,120, a trendline extending from early October. The next key level is 18,800, which combines Fibonacci support with an area of interest for institutional investors.

Resistance could be found at 19,500 and 19,800.

Entry points: for short-term traders looking to play a bounce, the market's reaction to 19,120 will be critical. If the level holds and a reversal pattern forms, this could present an opportunity for a short-term long position targeting 19,500.

A break below 18,800 would open the door to a full-fledged bearish trend, with targets in the 18,000–18,200 range.

Fundamental perspective: risk or opportunity?

The central question of the week is tomorrow's tariff announcement. It is known that the United States will introduce aggressive measures, but the scope and scale of the tariffs remain unclear. If it turns out that the new tariffs are less severe than feared and if some companies, such as TSMC, receive exemptions, this could become the catalyst for a market reversal as early as Wednesday or Thursday.

This is especially relevant given the current state of capitulation. Defensive sectors are also under pressure, gold is retreating after recent gains, and investor positioning remains heavily reduced.

That said, the long-term trend continues to pose challenges for the market. The potential for sustained capital outflows to Europe, growing protectionist rhetoric, and a lack of international allies could continue to weigh on US indices into the second quarter.

MobileTrader

MobileTrader: platform dagangan di hujung jari!

Muat turun dan mulakan sekarang!

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Ekuiti AS: pasaran kekal kukuh, pasaran yang lebih luas memimpin

S&P 500 Tinjauan pada 2 Julai Pasaran AS: kenaikan harga memegang kedudukan, pasaran lebih luas memimpin Indeks utama AS pada hari Selasa: Dow +0.9%, NASDAQ -0.8%, S&P 500 -0.1%. S&P

Jozef Kovach 13:04 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Kemas Kini Pasaran Saham AS pada 2 Julai: SP500 dan NASDAQ Menikmati Permintaan Kukuh

Pada penutupan dagangan semalam, indeks saham AS berakhir dengan campuran. S&P 500 susut sebanyak 0.11%, manakala Nasdaq 100 jatuh sebanyak 0.82%. Sebaliknya, Dow Jones Industrial Average meningkat sebanyak 0.91%. Hari

Jakub Novak 12:48 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Pasaran AS Kekal Berhampiran Paras Tertinggi

S&P 500 Tinjauan pada 1 Julai Pasaran AS berhenti seketika pada paras tinggi Indeks utama AS pada hari Isnin: Dow +0.6%, NASDAQ +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.5%, S&P 500: 6,204, julat

Jozef Kovach 11:53 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Kemaskini mengenai pasaran saham AS pada 2 Julai. SP500 dan NASDAQ meneruskan pertumbuhan stabil

Pada penghujung dagangan semalam, indeks saham AS ditutup lebih tinggi. S&P 500 meningkat sebanyak 0.52%, manakala Nasdaq 100 naik 0.47%. Dow Jones Industrial Average mengukuh sebanyak 0.43%. Indeks-indeks ini memulakan

Jakub Novak 09:52 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Kemas kini pasaran saham AS pada 30 Jun. SP500 mencapai puncak baharu pada 6,200. Laporan inflasi menunjukkan stagflasi.

S&P500 Kemaskini pasaran saham AS menjelang minggu berita besar. S&P 500 mensasarkan 6,200 Ringkasan indeks saham utama AS pada Jumaat: Dow +1%, NASDAQ +0.5%, S&P 500 +0.5%, S&P 500 ditutup

Jozef Kovach 11:17 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Kemas kini pasaran saham AS pada 27 Jun. SP500 dan NASDAQ mencapai paras tertinggi baharu

S&P 500 meningkat sebanyak 0.80%, manakala Nasdaq 100 menambah 0.97%. Dow Jones Industrial Average meningkat sebanyak 0.84%. Saham meningkat di tengah-tengah perbincangan bahawa AS semakin hampir dengan perjanjian perdagangan dengan

Jakub Novak 11:58 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Saham Nvidia Cecah Paras Tertinggi Sepanjang Masa

Semalam, indeks teknologi NASDAQ ditutup di kawasan positif, sebahagian besarnya disebabkan oleh lonjakan dalam saham Nvidia Corp., yang mencapai paras tertinggi dalam sejarah. Pengeluar utama cip AI dan semikonduktor

Jakub Novak 11:06 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Pasaran Saham Sedang Menghampiri Paras Berbahaya

Pola gelombang pada carta 24 jam untuk instrumen #SPX kelihatan umumnya jelas. Pada ketika ini, pembentukan aliran menaik disangka sudah selesai. Pada pandangan saya, kita mungkin akan melihat kesinambungan yang

Chin Zhao 12:35 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Kemas Kini Pasaran Saham AS pada 25 Jun: Indeks Utama Saham Meningkat dengan Keyakinan

S&P500 Gambaran ringkas indeks saham utama AS pada hari Selasa: Dow +1.2%, NASDAQ +1.4%, S&P 500 +1.1% (ditutup pada 6,092, dalam julat 5,700–6,300). Pasaran saham didagangkan dengan kecenderungan positif sepanjang

Jozef Kovach 11:52 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Pasaran saham AS dalam aliran menaik apabila gencatan senjata diumumkan antara Israel dan Iran

S&P500 Gambaran keseluruhan indeks saham penanda aras AS pada hari Isnin: Dow +0.9%, NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P 500 +1%, S&P 500 pada 6,025, julat 5,600–6,200 Pada awal pagi 24 Jun, Donald

Jozef Kovach 12:37 2025-06-24 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.