Following Tuesday's regular trading session, U.S. stock indices closed with another decline, ending just a step away from their annual lows. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.57%, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 2.15%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.84%.

U.S. Treasury bonds plummeted, and Asian indices fell to their lowest levels since January 2024 after U.S. President Donald Trump increased tariffs on China, intensifying pressure on Beijing. U.S. bonds declined, and the yield on 30-year Treasuries surged to its highest level since November 2023. The U.S. dollar resumed its decline. European stock index futures dropped by 4.4%, while futures on U.S. indices lost 1% to 2.5%, reflecting growing concern over a potential recession in the world's largest economy. Oil fell to a new four-year low.

Trump's tariffs are compounding capital flow problems and potentially undermining fiscal stability. This signals a deeper crisis of confidence among investors and market participants. U.S. Treasuries, once considered the world's ultimate safe haven, are now under pressure from fiscal concerns and the risk of retaliatory dumping through counter-tariffs.

Many investors condemned Trump's escalation of the trade war, with Trump raising tariffs on China to 104%. This prompted economists from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to raise the probability of a U.S. recession. This move triggered a wave of fear across global financial markets as analysts began forecasting a slowdown in global economic growth.

Tensions between the two largest economies in the world are straining supply chains, forcing companies to reconsider their strategies and seek alternative suppliers. The impact of these tariffs is being felt across sectors—from agriculture to technology—threatening profitability and creating uncertainty for businesses. In response to the escalating trade war, many governments have voiced concerns and called for dialogue to find mutually beneficial solutions. However, the outlook for a swift resolution remains bleak, and many experts fear that further deterioration could bring even more severe consequences for the global economy. Investors also increasingly worry that something could "break" in the financial system as market stress and volatility continue to rise.

The unfolding turmoil may force the Federal Reserve into a tough position. The need to lower interest rates conflicts with the fear of inflation surges caused by tariffs. As recent years have shown, inflation remains the Fed's number one headache.

Japanese long-term government bonds also declined as increased market volatility prompted investors to reduce their exposure to yield fluctuations. The yield on 40-year Japanese bonds reached a record high.

As of today, Trump's so-called retaliatory tariffs come into force, delivering a heavy blow to the global economy as he pushes forward with his radical overhaul of global trade. However, there are currently no signs of negotiation efforts from key trade partners, which only deepens fears about the future of the global economy.

Technical Outlook for S&P 500

The decline continues. Today, the main task for buyers will be to break through the nearest resistance at $4943. This would support continued growth and open the way toward a move to $5011. Another key objective for the bulls will be to regain control over the $5084 level, which would strengthen the buyers' position.

If the index declines due to weakening risk appetite, buyers must hold the line around $4858. A breakdown below this level would likely push the index back to $4805, opening the path to $4751.